Brazil clips the wings of banks adept at capital flight

November 30th, 2009

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By Gillian Tett/Financial Times

The Brazilian financial system has contained a striking local quirk in recent years. Unlike most other large economies, Brazil has insisted that any global bank that wanted to operate within its borders had to create subsidiaries, with their own capital, rather than branches of a head office.

This stance seemed unfashionable until quite recently. The dominant western theory before the credit bust was that capital markets were becoming increasingly globalised and integrated, which implied that banks should be able to move capital freely wherever they wanted, without worrying about national borders.

But Brazil’s stance is now stimulating a wider policy debate. Brazilian officials say one reason their financial system weathered the recent crisis relatively well was that the presence of subsidiaries enabled regulators to keep a close eye on banks – while also preventing any sudden capital flight. “This policy has served us well,” one Brazilian financial official told counterparts in Europe last week. Thus, the question now is whether other countries should follow suit and impose similar, local ring-fencing policies.

This is a suggestion that many bankers hate. Some big global banks, such as HSBC and Santander, do have a form of subsidiary structure. But most do not, and are apt to argue that national restrictions on banks would fly in the face of globalisation, while making the cost of capital much more expensive, since the use of capital would be less efficient.

However, at least two key reasons are enabling the concept to gain traction. First, the collapse of Lehman Brothers last year illustrated the problems that regulators face when trying to retrieve assets, if these can flit across a border without any control. In the case of Lehmans, billions of dollars left London just before its collapse. British lawyers are still trying to get it back.

Second, the debate on “living wills” – blueprints for how banks might dissolve themselves in a crisis – is threatening to shine a fresh light on global banking structures.

The idea of such wills was first mooted earlier this year, and British regulators have recently renamed them “recovery and resolution plans”. The Financial Services Authorityhas asked half a dozen UK-based banks to prepare such RRPs.

Paul Tucker, deputy governor of the Bank of England, is leading an international committee that will soon follow suit with 25 or so global banks.

Onecontentious issue is whether these reports will be kept confidential or not. But if the exercise gains momentum, it might produce a new level of transparency about where banks currently keep their assets, relative to their business and risks. That, in turn, might well prompt demands for more national ring-fencing of banks’ operations, as well as other forms of reorganisation.

Precisely for that reason, the emerging market members of the G20 are now backing the whole “living wills” idea. Some countries have spotted that if assets are ring-fenced, it makes it harder for global banks to flee if a crisis breaks.

Of course, as western bankers point out, such ring-fencing comes at a price – most notably, by making capital more expensive.

At a time when the world is still reeling from the cost of seemingly seamless global capital markets, however, that trade-off may yet appear more compelling.

Either way, it is worth keeping a close eye on what happens next to those living wills-cumRRPs – not just inside nations such as Brazil, but in the rest of the global financial system, too.

Dubai Banks Given Extra Liquidity

November 30th, 2009

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A billboard picture of Dubai's ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashed al-Maktoum outside the Emirates Twin Towers

The central bank of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has said it will provide banks with extra liquidity.

The news comes days after the state-owned Dubai World said it would ask for an extension on repaying its debts, sending world stock markets tumbling.

The move appeared designed to head off a possible run on UAE banks when they open after a four-day break for the Muslim Eid al-Adha holiday.

Dubai’s government is expected to make a statement before the market opens.

The International Monetary Fund has welcomed the decision by the UAE central bank.

“The United Arab Emirates is a strong resource-based economy and we welcome today’s announcement,” an IMF statement said.

There are fears that the stock market could plunge by up to 10%.
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Financial Analysis 101: How to Analyze The Dubai Financial Crisis

November 30th, 2009

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Although you could have easily missed it with all the news about Tiger Woods and his auto accident, or the White House party crashers taking up the majority of the air time, there was some very interesting financial news the past week.

Dubai, the play city for the wealthy, has run into financial problems due to plunging real estate values and has asked its creditors for a delay in its debt repayment schedule. Okay, so the fact that Dubai is in danger of defaulting on their debt and facing bankruptcy is just the first part of the interesting news.

The next part, which I find even more interesting, is the fact that none of the other United Arab Emirates (UAE) initially stepped up to “save the day” and even stated that they wouldn’t be stepping in for any bailout. How about that? Forcing Dubai to take responsibility for their own debt problems – what a novel concept!

Could that be a lesson for how the US and Europe should regard corporate debt problems? It would seem it’s a lesson they still aren’t ready to learn as the financial markets responded by falling last Friday and the major complaint/question repeated over and over again by the talking heads on financial and news media was “why wasn’t the UAE going to bail Dubai out?”

This type of mindset angers me to no end. How is it that banks and corporations feel they are entitled to special consideration and being bailed out for the “good of the markets”, and yet these same banks show little to no mercy for their own individual customers like homeowners who fall behind on their debt payments. Their level of hypocrisy knows no bounds, and is a clear example that the harsh realities of accountability don’t appear to apply to rich corporations. It disgusts me.

Meanwhile, the news media would rather keep you updated on fluff news like Tiger Woods, and White House parties instead of news that could actually have an impact in your life. This is why you should NEVER depend on the news for advance warning- by the time it’s becomes “worthy” of their attention, it will be too late to do anything about it.

Here are some of the questions you should be asking about the Dubai situation since most news media isn’t doing it:

1) How does this affect me or my investments?

Just because Dubai is half a world away is no guarantee that their actions have no global impact. The failure of US investment bank Lehman Brothers last year should make that very clear.

2) Could this crisis impact my country?

All investors in Dubai could be impacted – which includes many international banks and investment firms. How much have these corporations loaned to Dubai- which translates into how much of their capital is at risk?

3) What does this say about the remaining “systemic risk” out there?

Think Dubai is the only city-economy in dire straits? Think again. Could there be other cities or nations on financially shaky ground?

4) Why does the news ignore this story for the most part?

You can find news on Dubai if you’re on the financial news network or online service, but good luck finding it on regular TV news, where they would rather compete with Entertainment Tonight or TMZ, rather than give you useful information.

5) How does this affect overall market risk in general and risk to my investments in particular?

By effectively gauging risk, you will be ahead of the curve in keeping your long term investments safe from severe market turmoil.

Another Stunning Barack Obama Accomplishment - Biggest Drop In Business Loans On Record.

November 30th, 2009

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U.S. banks are earning money again, but they’re writing fewer business loans, threatening a fragile economic recovery.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. reported Tuesday that U.S. bank loans fell by $210.4 billion or 2.8% during the third quarter – the biggest drop since the FDIC started keeping records in 1984. Banks booked $2.8 billion in third-quarter profits, reversing a second-quarter loss of $4.3 billion. “We need to see banks making more loans to their business customers,” says FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair. “This is especially true for small businesses.”

Loans to businesses fell 6.5%, and real estate loans plummeted 8.1%.

“Until small businesses are able to borrow, we can’t have a robust economy, because that’s your largest source of jobs,” says Richard Posner, a law professor at the University of Chicago and a federal circuit judge. The Small Business Administration has said that small businesses created 64% of new jobs in the past 15 years.

Banks are reluctant to make new loans until they’ve cleared off the bad ones they made during the housing boom. Back then, they paid “insufficient attention to certain kinds of risky loans,” says Edward Kane, finance professor at Boston College. “You can’t expect them to turn around and turn the lending machine back on.”

Non-current loans rose more than 10% during the quarter to $366.6 billion or nearly 5% of all loans, the highest rate on record. Banks charged off nearly $51 billion in bad loans last quarter, the 11th straight quarterly increase and up more than 80% from a year earlier. “Loan losses will continue to climb as long as foreclosures keep rising and homeowners, builders and developers continue to hurt,” says Kate Monahan, banking analyst at Aite Group.

Major Banks Have Hired Thousands to Help Win the Foreclosure Fight

November 30th, 2009

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Major mortgage servicer Wells Fargo, which owns one in six U.S. mortgages, has nearly doubled its st

Barack Obama: Manchurian Candidate Version 2.0

November 30th, 2009

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(OpEdNews) – I once wrote an article about former President George W. Bush saying that he was

“This means that, for a non-owner occupied $1,000,000 property, HSBC is asking for 45% down.”

November 29th, 2009

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Even though the BOC rates have yet to rise, there is evidence of tightening from lenders. RBC recently increased terms on LOC loans (from prime +1% to prime +2% for many borrowers). This without a change in prime. Now comes news that may herald the beginning of hard times for speculators.

This from McLovin on robchipman.net 29 Nov 2009 12:29 pm -

“An interesting side-bar on “banks tightening up”… HSBC will [now] only finance 60% of the first $500K for a non-owner occupied [investment] (Rental unit), and 50% of the remainder. Even to a mega-bear like me that is excessive. Either they don’t really want to lend money, or they see bad things coming. This means that, for a non-owner occupied $1,000,000 property, HSBC is asking for 45% down.”

UK interests financial services in Thailand

November 29th, 2009

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Photo : Flickr.com The United Kingdom has shown interest in investing in Thailand’s financial

Credit Risk Management - A History

November 29th, 2009

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Following a suggestion I have been reading a book by Naomi Lamoreaux on the development of banking i

Bernanke: the FED has learned from the economic crisis.

November 29th, 2009

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This is rich. Ben Bernanke, in today’s Washington Post writes that our challenge is to design