I usually keep my mouth shut in public about NAMA and the Irish banking crisis. While I have opinions, they are not sufficiently well researched to press on anyone but friends and family. But the publication of the draft legislation on NAMA has crystallized some thoughts that I think are worth sharing.

The long term value of the property portfolio from which NAMA will seek to recover the public’s money will depend critically on:
- Future patterns of demographics and population;
- Future settlement patterns; and
- Future employment rates and labour productivity.

These will not be the only factors that influence property value in the long term, but they are near-certain to be among the most important. Any assertion that NAMA will eventually break even or make a profit implicitly claims that these will fall within some limits or other. I don’t know what those limits are, but I think it is important that they should be made explicit. Because, while (to my eyes anyway) estimations of property values 10 or 15 years out look like “finger in the air” stuff, it is possible to have a well grounded discussion about population, demographics, settlement patterns, employment rates and productivity.

This is all the more important because mainstream assumptions of the recent past about population, demographics and settlement patterns, that property developers will have used to inform their investment decisions, look likely to be wrong.

Mainstream assumptions about future population have mostly followed CSO scenarios that assumed substantial net inward migration, on top of a significant natural increase in population. QNHS data over the last year has shown population growth (aged 15+ anyway) slowing, and going into reverse (Q1 2009). My own scenario work shows very little prospect of population growth getting back on track. And if the people ain’t there, they ain’t gonna buy or rent homes, they ain’t gonna work in offices, and they ain’t gonna use retail space.

I think it is almost inevitable that changing thinking and incentives around settlement patterns  will drive patterns of new development different to those that property developers have assumed. Where there is development, it may not be on the lands that developers hold. Ideas about sustainable development that were aspirational in recent years are becoming more deeply embedded in policy. There is every prospect that peak oil will drive fuel prices so high that commuting will become less attractive. And, driving in the opposite direction though not necessarily in a way that benefits the value of existing development land, property taxes and a better broadband infrastructure have the potential to make housing outside the main population centres more attractive.

So, let’s make the assumptions about population, demographics, settlement patterns, employment rates and productivity explicit, and get away from the “finger in the air” stuff.

Jul 31, 3:56 AM EDT

Congress wants say on Wall Street pay

By ANNE FLAHERTY

WASHINGTON (AP) — Congress wants to give the government a direct role in deciding how much executives on Wall Street are paid, after the nation’s biggest banks accepted billions in taxpayer money and still managed to distribute $1 million bonuses to thousands of employees.

The House was expected to pass legislation Friday by Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, that would ban “incentive-based” pay that could threaten the economy or viability of the institution.

The bill, which would give regulators nine months to hash out the details, would give the government unprecedented say in how private corporations reward brokers and traders.

via News from The Associated Press.

Fifty Banks Fail in the USA

I read a news report today stating that the total number of bank failures in the USA during recent times [circa 2008/9 financial crisis] has reached the staggering number of fifty [and counting]. The report mentions this matter-of-factly, like it’s quite normal.

What this tells me, without going into any detail is that thousands of people, if not hundreds of thousands, may have lost some or all of their hard earned money. Reports like this tell me that it was the financial system that failed and it was government that allowed a financial system to evolve in which it was possible for fifty banks to fail, that failed.

When, oh, when are people going to start questioning what these less-than-desirable people are up to instead of accepting each monumental failure, financial catastrophe and the misery it causes without question or any call for accountability?

As for correcting the underlying flaws in the financial system, well after a brief flurry of activity by the new Obama administration it seems to have settled into the same old routine, financial reforms are still a long way away.

And it’s still a sad, sad world.

Postscript: July 2009

How in this world is it possible for a company that creates absolutely zero real wealth, a company that makes nothing, creates nothing [except money for itself and misery for many people], make 3 billion dollars profit in 3 months in the middle of a recession?

For any company in the financial sector to make a profit someone somewhere has to make a loss [perhaps it was some of those banks that went belly up]. The profit announcement was made with whoops of joy and merrymaking by the financial media like we should all be saying wow! well done! handshakes all round, the recession has bottomed out.

In my opinion it’s disgusting, I’m talking specifically of course about Goldman Sachs a candidate if ever there was one to be subpoenaed by the US Congress along with JP Morgan, who by all accounts have already received their ‘invitation’ this week to do a bit of squirming.

Radio Network New Zealand in association with Westpac, Microsoft and the New Zealand Ministry of Economic Development confirmed today that the Business Roadshow
was a great success. The main speaker business doctor Fred Stewart encouraged all small to medium business leaders to get to the basics and prepare themselves for the uptake in the world economy. Now is the time to take up the opportunities while others retrenched their activities.

The world of high risk merchants is a very broadly classified grouping of businesses that are flagged as “risky” for the types of services or products that they are selling. A company can be deemed high risk for a number of reasons, but most of the time companies are classified as high risk for the instability of their field or the lack of profit that is guaranteed in return to lenders.

Some examples of types of high risk merchants are; online dating services, web hosting companies, infomercials, downloadable software companies, prepaid phone cards or cell phones, time share services, telemarketing operations, tour guides or travel tour providers, billing agencies, credit repairers, online gambling of all sorts (cards, casino games, etc), adult services or products and escort services, just to name a few.   Each of these listed fields have no guarantee of profit or customers and because each of these companies requires a loan, they have no real means to promise a return on the payments, thus getting themselves marked as “risky” and put into the category of High Risk Merchants.

High risk merchants can be extremely successful however; it is just that there is no guarantee that can solidly convince many lenders to give high risk merchants money to start up their company. Another characteristic that can qualify a company as high risk is if it does a lot of offshore or international transactions or holds off shore accounts. These types of companies find it very difficult to find a lender to suit their needs because of the nature of their business.

High Risk Credit Card Processor represents 20+ different processing sources (US/Domestic banks, Offshore banks, 3rd Party Processors, ACH/Check Processors, etc.). Whether you are looking for one merchant account or multiple merchant accounts, we are certain that we can accommodate all of your processing needs. Regardless of business type or volume, we’ll get your account approved quickly and keep it running smoothly without any volume caps. Let our staff of processing industry veterans find the solution that’s right for you.

ASSET SALES Learn about loans, real estate, and other assets for sale by the FDIC.

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				Legacy Loans Program A joint FDIC-Treasury program incorporating public-private investment funds to purchase and sell bank’s loans and other assets.
				Loan Sales Learn everything you need to know about buying loans from the FDIC.
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Historical Sales
Review detailed information on past asset sales.
http://www.fdic.gov/buying/historical/index.html

http://www.fdic.gov/buying/index.html

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Other Asset Sales
Investigate the inventory of other assets for sale — including office furniture, fixtures, and equipment.

http://www.fdic.gov/buying/otherasset/index.html

***

Money Smart Press Releases

Previous Money Smart Press Releases FDIC Press Releases

2009

June

• MS-1-2009 FDIC Introduces a Portable Audio (MP3) Version of the Money Smart Financial Education Curriculum

http://www.fdic.gov/consumers/consumer/moneysmart/press/2009/mspr0901.html

Money Smart Adult Financial Education Curriculum

**

And, Money Smart Home –

http://www.fdic.gov/consumers/consumer/moneysmart/index.html

[These are all from the FDIC - ]

http://www.fdic.gov/consumers/consumer/moneysmart/press/2009/index.html

***

Publications and Other Resources

**

http://www.fdic.gov/consumers/consumer/moneysmart/index.html

Financial Education…..A Corporate Commitment
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) initiated a national financial education campaign in 2001 by launching Money Smart, a comprehensive financial education curriculum designed to help individuals outside the financial mainstream develop financial skills and positive banking relationships. The FDIC has far exceeded its original commitment to reach one million consumers. The FDIC is continuing to work diligently to form alliances with other major entities, including financial institutions, national non-profit organizations, community- and consumer-based groups, and federal, state and local agencies to promote financial education.

Hollywood prop auction ends 40-year career
Foam aliens, carousel horses, Roman sculptures all being sold off
IMAGE: 20th Century Props
A worker tags the inventory of 20th Century Props in North Hollywood, California. The prop house is auctioning off its inventory and plans to close.

updated 1:12 p.m. ET, Thurs., July 30, 2009

LOS ANGELES – When Harvey Schwartz left his job as an aerospace engineer and opened an antique shop, he ignited a passion that led to a 40-year career.

Harvey’s Antiques spawned Harvey’s Props, which eventually became 20th Century Props, described by Schwartz as “the biggest prop house in the world under one roof.”

But no more. Schwartz’s inventory of more than 93,000 pieces — including foam aliens, vintage furniture and appliances, carousel horses, Roman sculptures and other assorted props from film and TV — is being liquidated. A slowdown in the economy and Hollywood productions is forcing him to close his doors. He expects his 200,000-square-foot warehouse in North Hollywood to be “broom clean” by Aug. 15.

[ . . . ]

“That was the last straw,” he said. “We’re broke. We couldn’t hold on any longer so I had to put it up for auction so I could dig up the money to pay the debts.”

The auction is being held on site and online. Schwartz can hardly bear to watch.

“This antique roulette table that’s been in Hollywood for 80 years, with a beautiful hand-carved base, just a magnificent piece. I paid, at auction — I got a really great bargain, I thought — a few years ago, I paid $6,000,” he said. “And it just went up on the auction block for 350 bucks. It’s like a piece of trash. So it’s very painful to see these things go.”

Some of the buyers are collectors. Some own prop shops. Others are just looking for unusual items.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32220805/ns/entertainment-movies/

***

A public auction will be held on-site and by webcast from July 28-Aug. 1, starting at 9:30 a.m. each day.Info: www.greatamerican.com

**

http://www.reuters.com/article/entertainmentNews/idUSTRE56J5NO20090720

Huge Hollywood prop house closing after 40 years
Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:36pm EDT

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – Hollywood’s second-largest prop house is going out of business with its owner saying he has fallen victim to film and TV production leaving California for other U.S. states that lure producers with tax incentives and fewer restrictions.

20th Century Props is closing its doors for good at the end of July and auctioning off a collection of 93,000 props from such films as “Cleopatra” and “Titanic”, as well as TV’s “The X Files” and “Golden Girls” and music videos from Michael Jackson, Britney Spears and Madonna.

[etc.]

Schwartz has run 20th Century Props for 40 years, claiming to be the second-biggest prop house in the world and the largest under one roof, a 120,000 square foot (11,150 sq meter) warehouse in suburban North Hollywood near Universal Studios.

He said business been slowing down for years as productions left California for Canada and other states that offered tax credits and eased rules about filming.

“They are also offering really low prices on filming on the streets and filming permits, where California raised the prices last year,” he said.

[ . . . ]

http://www.reuters.com/article/entertainmentNews/idUSTRE56J5NO20090720

***

[From LA Times - very nifty slide show, too.]

http://www.latimes.com/features/home/la-ho-props-ss,0,427836.htmlstory

***

[Also - in New York City, not to be outdone by Los Angeles - ]

Huge multi-estate sale planned for Jul. 31-Aug. 2 in N.Y.
Around 1,200 fresh-to-the-market lots in a broad array of categories will be sold the weekend of July 31-Aug. 2 by Philip Weiss Auctions in Oceanside, N.Y. Then, in Sept., a 5-lb. pearl will be sold.

(OCEANSIDE, N.Y.) – Around 1,200 lots in a wide array of categories – to include toy trains, transportation, advertising, militaria, ocean liner, World’s Fair, railroadiana, automotive, Hollywood memorabilia, historical items and more – will be sold at a three-day event slated for July 31-Aug. 2 by Philip Weiss Auctions, in the firm’s spacious gallery facility located at #1 Neil Court in Oceanside, N.Y.

“We had several well-attended and successful sales in the first half of 2009, and now we’ll continue in the July 31-Aug. 2 auction with some of the best collections we’ve ever offered,” said Philip Weiss. Previews will be held on Wednesday, July 29, from noon to 5 p.m., and on Thursday and Friday, July 30-31, from noon to 8 p.m. each day. Online bidding will be facilitated by Proxibid.com.

The Friday, July 31 session (starting at 4 p.m.), will be dedicated to toy trains — about 450 lots, 95 percent of them mint in the box. Featured will be an important attic find of 1940s-’60s Lionel trains (most with original boxes and many outfit boxes), group lots of 1970s-’80s mint-in-the-box Lionel and other makers’ trains and accessories, modern Lionel trains, Rail King, MTH, K-Line, Weaver and more.

The Saturday, Aug. 1 session (with a 10 a.m. start time) will feature transportation items, advertising memorabilia and militaria, plus around 150 lots from the estate of Ken Schultz, a dedicated collector of ocean liner, World’s Fair and Hollywood collectibles. Ocean liner china and silver from other collections will be included as well. Also to be sold will be about 100 antique advertising signs.

The Aug. 1 session will continue with a nice selection of railroading items and automotive material, to include a run of vintage Pennsylvania Railroad calendars, lanterns, an original lamp from Grand Central Station in New York, stock certificates, 100+ lots of vintage advertising agricultural signs, vintage soap advertising and other related material. Additional items are being regularly added.

The Sunday, Aug. 2 session (also with a 10 a.m. start time) will feature 500 lots, to include Hollywood memorabilia such as celebrity-worn items, movie props and posters, autographed photos, a collection of Clarence Bull photos, and photos from the LOOK Magazine archives. Historical items will include the lock box belonging to Maj. Gustavus S. Dana (an organizer of Lincoln’s Honor Guard).

Also to cross the block Aug. 2: a nice selection of authenticated Civil War-era carte-de-visites (early photographic images), and an important archive of material pertaining to Charles J. Guiteau, the assassin of President James A. Garfield in 1881 (to include two actual pieces of the rope used to hang Guiteau, a cabinet card of Guiteau, letters written to him while he was in prison, an archive of Garfield photos (to include the earliest known daguerreotypes of him), illustrations, a strong box and more. Also to be offered: an original Apollo 10 flag and patch flown to the moon during an historic lunar mission.

Military material to be sold Aug. 2 includes a Thomas Griswold & Co.

Confederate officer’s cavalry saber, an authentic Civil War bugle, a U.S. percussion musket, and more items a collection that includes all major wars, highlighted by both World Wars, posters from World War I & II, and more. All purchases will be subject to a 13% buyer’s premium. Terms are cash, check and all major credit cards.

Sometime in September, on a day and time still to be determined, Philip Weiss Auctions will offer a truly unique object — a pearl weighing an incredible five pounds and measuring six inches in length. The brain-shaped specimen – a giant non-nacreous natural blister pearl – was found in the waters off the Philippines, in the giant clam Tridacna Gigas. It is one of the largest pearls ever found.

A team of expert gemologists analyzed the pearl, using digital radiography, close magnification and data provided by a hand-held X-ray fluorescence (XRF) unit. “This is a once-in-a-lifetime look at one of nature’s most unique treasures,” said Mitch Jakubovic, a gemologist with EGL USA. “A pearl this size is not only the largest one we’ve ever seen, it is among the largest pearls ever seen anywhere.”

David Bidwell, a senior appraiser with Universal Gemological Services (EGL USA’a appraisal affiliate), said, “This is clearly one of the most valuable pearls of its kind in the world today. I will be very curious to see what it sells for.” The pearl was consigned to Philip Weiss Auctions by its current owner. “To coin a phrase, you might say the pearl world is his oyster,” Bidwell said of the consignor.

sale planned for Jul. 31-Aug. 2 in N.Y. Around 1,200 fresh-to-the-market lots in a broad array of categories will be sold the weekend of July 31-Aug. 2 by Philip Weiss Auctions in Oceanside, N.Y. Then, in Sept., a 5-lb. pearl will be sold.

Philip Weiss Auctions is always accepting quality consignments for future sales. To consign an item, an estate or an entire collection, you may call them directly, at (516) 594-0731, or you can e-mail them at phil@prwauctions.com. To learn more about the company and its calendar of upcoming sales, to include the July 31-Aug. 2 auction, log on to www.prwauctions.com. Updates are posted often.

http://www.news-antique.com/?id=787539&keys=trains-hollywood-militaria-toys

Check here for more information -

www.prwauctions.com

(That is the ugliest pearl I’ve ever seen, I don’t care how big it is.)

***

And from LA Daily News – (about the new film tax breaks / incentives) – which is too little too late for the Hollywood prop master whose business represents a total collection worth much more than he will ever receive on auction -

http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_12933303

One entrepreneur who’s given up the fight is 20th Century Props owner Harvey Schwartz.

He began a five-day auction Tuesday of his 90,000 vintage movie props and memorabilia and spoke at the news conference about the impact of runaway production.

“People on the other side of the building are auctioning goods off that I’ve treasured here for 20 to 40 years,” Schwartz said beneath the baleful gaze of a T. Rex skeleton and rows of chandeliers dripping teardrop crystals.

“I built this to last forever and I thought it would. I was born and raised in Hollywood, but runaway production has made it so hard for my and a lot of other industries to survive.”

“In 2001, 82 percent of all filming in the United States was filmed in California,” Lippe said. “Now, it’s in the low 30 percent bracket.”

[Etc. - the article has a lots more about the tax incentives program along with 25 new films that are set to get that help - why couldn't they have save the prop business or helped him put it online or something? It doesn't make any good sense . . . - my note]

http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_12933303

Film, TV projects line up for $67.5 million in incentives

California’s month-old tax-incentive program appears to be keeping some film and TV productions from fleeing the Golden State, officials said Tuesday.

The California Film Commission, which oversees the program, has allocated nearly $67.5 million in tax credits for 25 film and television productions with a total budget of $347 million.

Flamingos wait to be auctioned at 20th Century Props in North Hollywood, CA July 28, 2009. Assemblyman Paul Krekorian held a press conference at the facility to unveil the latest figures from the state’s film incentive program. The press conference was held on the 1st day of the public auction at the business which is set to close after four decades in business.

[ . . . ]

Here are the first 25 film and television productions to qualify for about $67 million in state-funded incentives:

PRODUCTION COMPANY

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My Note -

There are numerous sales and auctions occurring all over the country but one of the best events coming up is the Star Trek Convention in Las Vegas, August 6 – 9, 2009. Now that should be some fun . . .

- cricketdiane

***

Has Wall Street regulation worked? As a landmark stock-research settlement–requiring brokerages to spend $460 million over five years on reforms–expired this week, the key man behind the deal, Eliot Spitzer, and two experts, former Citigroup (C) CFO Sallie Krawcheck and Fortune’s Allan Sloan, convened at CNNMoney’s studios to talk about the progress. I sat in on their conversation. You can view segments on CNNMoney by clicking the links at the end of this post or viewing the entire 27-minute video here.

The panelists agreed on one thing: The best evidence that the reforms actually aided individual investors is that we haven’t heard much lately about dishonest stock analysts. (Bad research has mainly come out of rating agencies, which have conflicts of interest that need fixing.) That said, as often happens, the reformers did more than needed, ushering in disclosure rules and red tape that have confused consumers more than helped them with their investment choices.

In Krawcheck’s view, at least. Spitzer, whose Dudley Do-Right reputation collapsed with the sex scandal that knocked him from the New York governor’s post, pushed back. He likens investors who gripe about excessive regulation to patients who leave the hospital after a cure and say, “But you gave me three antibiotics that I didn’t need!” Krawcheck liked the analogy. But over lunch yesterday, as she I recapped the roundtable, she said she wished she had replied to Spitzer: “Too many antibiotics make the patient immune.”

Krawcheck, who oversaw Citi’s global wealth management unit after her CFO stint, says that financial regulation everywhere has become so complex that consumers often don’t understand what they’re getting, whether they’re buying a mortgage (as she did recently) or a mutual fund. “More is not always better. Better is better,” she says. Wall Street firms, she contends, purposely create complex products that are practically impossible to understand because they want to confuse competitors–so as to prevent them from copying and gaining ground.

Where is Krawcheck, 44, going next? Since Citi announced her exit last September–following clashes with CEO Vikram Pandit–the banking world’s onetime Most Powerful Woman (and Dell (DELL) board member) has been elusive and mostly silent. That’s changing. She told me at lunch that she’s come close to accepting a couple of jobs–all in financial services–only to decide that they didn’t “hit the bulls-eye.” Particularly in this treacherous environment, she says, “there’s no use rushing.”

My bet: Krawcheck will land somewhere–or maybe announce she’s starting her own firm–later this year.

P.S. Click on these links for part 1, 2, and 3 of CNNMoney anchor Poppy Harlow’s interview with Krawcheck, Spitzer and Sloan.

http://www.bostonherald.com/business/general/view/20090730barney_frank_warns_banks_about_foreclosures/